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Applied and Environmental Microbiology, May 2002, p. 2468-2478, Vol. 68, No. 5
0099-2240/02/$04.00+0 DOI: 10.1128/AEM.68.5.2468-2478.2002
Copyright © 2002, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service,1 North Carolina Agricultural Research Service, Department of Food Science, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-7624,2 Departments of Statistics and Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-82033
Received 9 July 2001/ Accepted 14 February 2002
We developed a mechanistic mathematical model for predicting the progression of batch fermentation of cucumber juice by Lactococcus lactis under variable environmental conditions. In order to overcome the deficiencies of presently available models, we use a dynamic energy budget approach to model the dependence of growth on present as well as past environmental conditions. When parameter estimates from independent experimental data are used, our model is able to predict the outcomes of three different temperature shift scenarios. Sensitivity analyses elucidate how temperature affects the metabolism and growth of cells through all four stages of fermentation and reveal that there is a qualitative reversal in the factors limiting growth between low and high temperatures. Our model has an applied use as a predictive tool in batch culture growth. It has the added advantage of being able to suggest plausible and testable mechanistic assumptions about the interplay between cellular energetics and the modes of inhibition by temperature and end product accumulation.
Paper no. FSR01-22 of the Journal Series of the Department of Food Science, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7624.
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