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Applied and Environmental Microbiology, April 2007, p. 2239-2246, Vol. 73, No. 7
0099-2240/07/$08.00+0 doi:10.1128/AEM.02013-06
Copyright © 2007, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Quality & Safety Department, Nestlé Research Centre, Vers-Chez-Les-Blanc, 1000 Lausanne 26, Switzerland
Received 24 August 2006/ Accepted 30 January 2007
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The hurdle concept developed by Leistner (19) can be defined as a "systems approach" to food preservation. The concept considers the aggregation of various preservation processeschemical, physical and biologicalto control the growth of spoilage or pathogenic organisms in foods. The hypothetical basis of hurdle technology is that the combination of several inhibitory processes or events (hurdles) gives a multitarget disturbance of homeostasis (20, 21). Combinations are considered, therefore, to achieve results better than or at least equivalent to those of a single inhibitory action. Within hurdle technology, the idea that combined inhibitory factors can lead to "synergy" is an oft-vaunted hypothesis. Brocklehurst (5) states, however, that although hurdles such as pH, temperature, and water activity (aw) act independently, "It would be expected... that interactions must occur between certain hurdles." The interaction between weak acids and pH and the interaction terms from polynomial predictive models are used as confirmatory examples.
Predictive microbiology or "the quantitative microbial ecology of foods" (25, 26) attempts to provide mathematical models of microbial growth under a variety of environmental conditionse.g., temperature, pH, aw, and the effect of preservatives. Predictive modeling can be considered the quantification of hurdle technology. The variety of models, of modeling procedures, and of data types and the intrinsic variability observed within the microbial responses show predictive modeling to be an active, developing field of study (24) and therefore a field that also has active debate on definitions and concepts in use.
Ratkowsky (32) heads a section in a chapter on modeling with "Why polynomial models do not work." Although the main argument was that such models were not parsimonious, that they lacked physically interpretable parameters was also a major concern. Polynomials do work, however, in the sense that they are fit-for-purpose, the purpose being to empirically describe the observed data, enabling the interpolation of the data set. The nontheoretical basis of such response-surface models was previously stated by Gibson et al. (12) in her landmark publication on Salmonella. Others have suggested, however, that the cross terms of polynomial equations have a physical significance by attributing statistically significant cross terms to interactive effects between factors (e.g., see references 4, 5, and 7).
The gamma concept (36) suggests that combined environmental factors (temperature, pH, aw, etc.) independently affect the growth of microorganisms. More recently, this fundamental concept has been abandoned by some authors, who have assumed that the original concept can be enlarged by the addition of arbitrary interactive effects, e.g., interactions between weak acids and pH (22) or between weak acids (10), as well as a study of the interactive effects between temperature, pH, and aw (1), which counters Brocklehurst (5).
The growth of A. hydrophila in combinations of temperature, pH, salt, and NaNO2 has been reported (29, 30), and the polynomial obtained forms the basis of the predictive model used in the Pathogen Modeling Program (U.S. Department of Agriculture). The apparent interactions between pH, nitrite, and salt have also been commented on for other organisms (3, 4, 6, 8, 33). The nitrite ion is in equilibrium with nitrous acid (HNO2; pKa = 3.38), and the antimicrobial effect of nitrite is associated with the activity of nitrous acid (9) and as such is intimately linked to the environmental pH.
Recently we showed that combinations of pH, salt, and some common weak acid preservatives act independently on the growth of A. hydrophila as monitored by optical density (OD) (16). Given the importance of combinations of pH, salt, and nitrite within the literature and whether interactions between these factors exist or are an artifact of the models used, it appeared appropriate to develop our study of this organism using these particular combinations.
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Inhibitor analysis.
All analyses were performed by using a Bioscreen microbiological analyzer (Labsystems, Helsinki, Finland) incubated at 30°C. The inhibitory effect of NaNO2 and pH was analyzed by using the general method described by Lambert and Pearson (18), with replicate plates of NaNO2 concentrations made up at different pH values (total of 495 different conditions). For the analysis of salt and NaNO2 at various pHs, checkerboards of the combined inhibitors were prepared at a constant pH, using the method of Lambert and Lambert (17). A total of 495 different conditions were analyzed.
The Bioscreens were set to take an OD reading at 600 nm every 10 min.
Model fitting.
Data obtained from the Bioscreen (tables of OD and time) were transformed to either the reciprocal or natural logarithm. Such transformations stabilize the data variance, allowing a less-biased analysis. Wells that showed no growth during the period of the experiment were not used in the model fitting (censored) but were retained for comparison and also for the logistic modeling of the growth/no-growth boundary.
The general form of the model used in these studies was developed from that introduced by Lambert and Lambert (17), which was used to examine data from checkerboard experiments with combined antibiotics and other microbial inhibitors. The model is capable of handling the required variance-stabilizing transformations necessary to ensure the minimization of bias through regression analysis (35, 32):
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Since q is rarely known, two principal values of q were assumed (q = 2 or 4), corresponding to the log and reciprocal transformations (termed the log model and reciprocal model, respectively).
MICs were calculated using equation 2, following the method described by Lambert and Lambert (17).
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Logistic modeling of the growth/no growth boundary was done by degrading the data to nominal data and using the nominal logistic modeling application within JMP. Response surface fits for comparison to those obtained from equation 1 were also performed with the JMP software. The scaling factors given are those calculated with the JMP software.
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FIG. 1. (a) Plot of the incubation time against the area under the OD/incubation time curve for several concentrations of sodium nitrite at pH 6.8. (b) Plot of the incubation time against the area under the OD/incubation time curve for several concentrations of sodium nitrite at pH 5.5.
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Fitting equation 6 to the iso-pH data gave the parameters listed in Table 1; MICs were calculated using equation 2. A plot of pH against MIC (mg liter1 of total NaNO2) gave a good fit to a simple quadratic: MICtotal nitrite = 812.3 pH2 8,502.5 pH + 22,930; r2 = 0.999. From the MIC and the pH, the concentration of nitrous acid ranges between 0.8 mg liter1 at pH 6.8 and 1.6 mg liter1 at pH 5.7. These values are similar to those found by Castellani and Niven with Staphylococcus aureus (9). Figures 2 and 3 show the fit of equation 6 and its logarithmic transform, respectively, to the iso-pH data.
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TABLE 1. Sodium nitrite inhibition of A. hydrophilaa
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FIG. 2. Effect of total nitrite and pH on RRD: pHs 6.8 ( ), 6.5 ( ), 6.2 ( ), 5.9 ( ), 5.7 ( ), and 5.5 ( ).
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FIG. 3. Effect of total nitrite and pH on ln(TTD): pHs 6.8 ( ), 6.5 ( ), 6.2 ( ), 5.9 ( ), 5.7 ( ), and 5.5 ( ).
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TABLE 2. Comparison of the gamma model (reciprocal transformation) for action of Na nitrite and pH on growth of A. hydrophila
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TABLE 3. Iso-pH parameters for combinations of Na nitrite and saltc
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FIG. 4. Comparison of the calculated MICs at various pHs for Na nitrite, analyzed alone ( ) or in combination with salt (). The bars give the upper and lower 95% confidence intervals.
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TABLE 4. Parameters for the gamma model for combinations of pH, Na nitrite, and salta
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TABLE 5. Response surface parameters for estimation of ln(TTD) values for combinations of pH, salt, and nitrous acid against A. hydrophilaa
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TABLE 6. Nominal logistic model for growth/no growth of A. hydrophila for combinations of pH, salt, and Na nitritea
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TABLE 7. Contingency table for observed G/NG and calculated G/NGa
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The hypothesis underlying the work given herein is that the gamma hypothesis is a valid framework for the investigation of the growth of microorganisms (36). In predictive models, which are based on the gamma approach, the temperature is modeled as a discrete function using, for example, the Rosso cardinal temperature model (34). Using the published temperature (temp) cardinal parameters for A. hydrophila, the following model was constructed:
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In the first case, a reasonable fit to observations where the temperature (T) was >5°C was found (r2 = 0.79); the lack of fit for values where T equaled 5°C was not surprising given that the model used the cardinal minimum T (Tmin) value of 5.1. By allowing the Tmin parameter to relax, a good fit to the published data was obtained with an estimated Tmin value of 2.2°C. Allowing all of the parameters to relax gave a better fit (Table 8).
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TABLE 8. Fit of the gamma model (log transform) to data from work of Palumbo et al. (29)
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FIG. 5. Comparison of the polynomial model by Palumbo et al. (29) with the gamma model (equation 1) for the log of the TTD of A. hydrophila in various environments of temperature, pH, salt, and nitrite concentration.
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When the pHs of solutions containing the same concentrations of NaNO2 were altered, the OD/time plots changed from type 2 to type 1 as the pHs were reduced. This suggested that there were two mechanisms of inhibition operating, dependent on pH. Since at a given pH, NaNO2 exists in an equilibrium form between the anion and nitrous acid, it was hypothesized that at the higher pH the nitrite ion was the dominant inhibitor, whereas at the lower pH nitrous acid was dominant.
At a specific pH, no distinction between the actions of nitrous acid and nitrite is possible using a model which separates the two (e.g., equation 5), since they exist in equilibrium. Modeling simply results in an exact correlation between the parameters for the nitrite ion and those of nitrous acid. An assumption made in the modeling was that the combined effect (equation 6) was applicable. Lambert and Lambert (17) have shown that this assumption is valid only under certain circumstances, e.g., when the exponent powers are close to 1, or else a binomial type of expansion is required. In this case, the assumption led to a good fit of the model to the data. As expected, the MIC of total added nitrite decreases with decreasing pH. It is noteworthy that this observation is missing from response-surface models, and this reinforces the fact that such models are empiricisms.
Using data from the entire pH range, a distinction between the effects of nitrous acid and the nitrite ion can be made. The calculated MIC (mg liter1) of nitrite indicates it is about 1,400-fold less powerful than nitrous acid (2,033 versus 1.43 mg liter1, respectively). From the data of Palumbo et al. (29), the maximum concentration of NaNO2 used was 200 mg liter1, and so the nitrite ion would have had no observable affect on inhibition. Also, the relevance of the nitrite ion per se as an antimicrobial is moot, since permitted levels of total NaNO2 in foods are generally limited to less than 200 mg kg1 (27).
Of relevance to the discussion, however, is whether the combination of pH and NaNO2 (as the total added) can be considered synergistic. The gamma model suggests that the antimicrobial effects of pH and the nitrite ion are independent, whereas the concentration of nitrous acid (and remaining nitrite) is dependent on the pH. We would suggest that the label of antimicrobial synergy be retained only when the effect on the microbe is enhanced above that expected due to the presence of both inhibitors. In this case, the effect of pH on nitrite is to produce more nitrous acid at a lower pH, which is simple physical chemistry, and therefore a label of antimicrobial synergy between pH and the weak acid is not justified, since the action occurs whether or not a microbe is present.
Combinations of nitrite with salt at a lowered pH are considered in the literature to be synergistic against several organisms. Previous work in our laboratory showed that salt and pH have independent effects against A. hydrophila (16). In the work reported herein, the calculated MIC of total nitrite ion was unaffected by the presence of salt. The gamma model fitted the observations well, suggesting that combinations of pH, salt, and NaNO2 have independent antimicrobial effects and that the gamma hypothesis is valid for these combinations.
Analyses of the data using a response-surface model or a nominal logistic model (for the growth/no-growth boundary) gave very good fits to the data. In these cases significant cross-products (between factors) were recorded. This would appear to suggest a different conclusion as to the existence of interactions between factors. The logarithmic transform of the gamma model with the pH, salt, and NaNO2 data gave a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.141 (nine parameters), whereas the response model had a lower RMSE of 0.134 (10 parameters [Table 5]). We would argue that the response surface fit, although a superior fit, is an inferior model to the gamma model (equation 1) because of an objection given by Ratkowsky (32): that the parameters are not biologically meaningful. A similar argument can be given to the fit of the nominal logistic model: the fit is excellent (1.2% error) and there are numerous cross-terms, but the model parameters are biologically meaningless.
We would disagree with Ratkowsky (32), however, and suggest that polynomials do workit simply depends on what you want them to do. For the models described, a simple hierarchy construct is useful: the simplest is nominal logistic, followed by response surface, followed by mechanistic or truly predictive models. If the purpose of the model is to describe under which conditions a likely product will fail, then a nominal logistic approach is very useful (31). It gives the simple criterion of growth or no growth. The drawback is that the data need to cover the exact time (shelf-life) needed for the product. There is no information on when something will grow, since the data will be recorded as G or NG. A recent example of this type of modeling used published data to define the boundaries of growth for several pathogens (23).
If the time of growth of a particular combination of factors is required, then a response surface model will be well suited. It can be interpolated, with the proviso as given by Baranyi et al. (2), and an error estimate can be given. The method has the drawback that the whole range of experiments have to be carried out first using a cogent experimental design, that extrapolations are mathematically forbidden, and that addition of a new factor may require the entire design to be redone. A principal reason for the latter statement is the presence within the model of interaction terms.
A mechanistic model may have the advantage of a scientific basis, which the other types of models do not have. Furthermore, this type of modeling can explore "inhibitory" space using the gamma hypothesis as a directional tool. If the model is robust enough, it should be capable of extrapolation and expansion. With this reasoning, the gamma model was supplemented with a cardinal temperature function (34) with the assumption that the gamma hypothesis was valid over the entire experimental temperature range, i.e., that temperature, pH, NaNO2, and salt all act independently on the growth of A. hydrophila. The conclusion reached was that the fit of the gamma model (equation 1) to the data previously found for pH, salt, and the total nitrite concentration, when augmented by a temperature function, can reproduce the data calculated from the model of Palumbo et al. (29).
The Palumbo model contains several cross-terms, which were considered to show interactive effects. That a gamma model fits the data equally well suggests that in this case, there are no interactive effects.
Modeling microbiological data using the gamma approach can lead to a large savings in the time and resources required to produce predictive models for use in product development. If the gamma hypothesis is valid, then careful experiments can be carried out on individual factors; these can then be combined to give a larger model. This approach is wholly consistent with the hurdle approach, except that the gamma hypothesis negates the possibility of synergistic effects. There may indeed be antimicrobial synergistic effects, but within food microbiology there is little, if any, unequivocal evidence of such an occurrence. Part of the problem lies with how we define synergy and how we model for the effect, a problem that afflicts many other disciplines dealing with antimicrobials (e.g., see references 11, 15, and 28).
Published ahead of print on 9 February 2007. ![]()
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